[1]林吟,陈庚,钟晓容.终末期肾病透析患者生存时间的影响因素分析及预测模型构建[J].福建医药杂志,2024,46(03):140-144.[doi:10.20148/j.fmj.2024.03.052]
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终末期肾病透析患者生存时间的影响因素分析及预测模型构建()
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《福建医药杂志》[ISSN:1002-2600/CN:35-1071/R]

卷:
46
期数:
2024年03期
页码:
140-144
栏目:
护理园地
出版日期:
2024-06-15

文章信息/Info

文章编号:
1002-2600(2024)03-0140-05
作者:
林吟陈庚钟晓容
福建省福州市第一总医院,福州 350009
关键词:
血液指标 透析 慢性肾脏病 预后模型 终末期肾脏病
分类号:
R692.5
DOI:
10.20148/j.fmj.2024.03.052
文献标志码:
B
摘要:
目的 探讨终末期肾病透析患者生存时间的影响因素及预测模型的构建。方法 采用单因素Cox回归分析影响终末期肾病透析患者生存时间的基本情况和血液指标。构建多因素Cox回归模型、最小绝对收缩和选择算子(Lasso)回归模型和随机生存森林(RSF)模型。采用赤池信息准则(AIC)最小值法、Lambda最小值法、变量重要性(VIMP)法和最小深度法筛选透析患者可能的影响因素。通过计算模型的一致性指数(C-index)和ROC曲线下面积(AUC),比较模型间拟合度和预测效果。结果 年龄(HR=2.271)、舒张压(HR=0.869)、患有糖尿病(HR=1.660)是终末期肾病透析患者生存时间的影响因素(P<0.05)。Cox回归模型的预测性能可能优于Lasso回归模型和RSF模型(C-Index:0.717 vs.0.705 vs.0.678; AUC:0.71 vs.0.68 vs.0.71)。结论 年龄超过60岁、合并有糖尿病会缩短透析患者的生存时间,舒张压较高可延长患者的生存时间。

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目:福州市科技计划项目(2021-S-175)
通信作者:陈 庚,Email:339729173@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-06-15