[1]黄慧琴 邹 燕 李 勇 郭舜民 余晶晶.福州地区慢性阻塞性肺病急性发作与气象因素的相关性分析及其预警模型的初步探讨[J].福建医药杂志,2020,42(01):23-26.
　HUANG Huiqin,ZOU Yan,LI Yong,et al.Correlation analysis between the occurrence of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and meteorological factors in Fuzhou city and preliminary study on its forewarning model[J].FUJIAN MEDICAL JOURNAL,2020,42(01):23-26.
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福州地区慢性阻塞性肺病急性发作与气象因素的相关性分析及其预警模型的初步探讨()
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《福建医药杂志》[ISSN:1002-2600/CN:35-1071/R]

卷:
42
期数:
2020年01期
页码:
23-26
栏目:
临床研究
出版日期:
2020-03-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Correlation analysis between the occurrence of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and meteorological factors in Fuzhou city and preliminary study on its forewarning model
文章编号:
1002-2600(2020)01-0023-04
作者:
黄慧琴 邹 燕1 李 勇2 郭舜民 余晶晶
福建省医学科学研究院 福建省医学测试重点实验室(福州 350001)
Author(s):
HUANG Huiqin; ZOU Yan; LI Yong; GUO Shunmin; YV Jingjing.
Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Medical Analysis,Fujian Academy of Medical Sciences, Fuzhou, Fujian 350001,China
关键词:
慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD);  气象因素;  预警模型
Keywords:
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD);  meteorological factors;  forewarning model
分类号:
R563
文献标志码:
B
摘要:
目的 分析福州市慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)急性发作与同期气象因素的相关性,建立福州地区COPD急性发作气象预警模型。方法 收集福建医科大学附属协和医院住院的COPD急性发作病例,选取同期月平均气温、月平均气温波动指数、月平均最低气温、月平均最低气温波动指数、月平均气压、月平均降雨量、月平均相对湿度这7个气象指标为评估因子,进行多元逐步回归分析,建立基于不同季节的精确预警模型。结果 春季COPD发病人数与月平均最低气温、月平均气温波动指数呈正相关关系,与月平均相对湿度、月平均气温呈负相关关系(调整R2=0.54,F=18.29,P<0.05); 夏季发病人数与月平均相对湿度、月平均气温、月平均最低气温波动指数呈负相关关系(调整R2=0.30,F=9.47,P<0.05); 秋季发病人数与月平均气压呈正相关关系,与月平均相对湿度呈负相关关系(调整R2=0.45,F=24.95,P<0.05); 冬季发病人数与月平均相对湿度、月平均气压呈负相关关系(调整R2=0.20,F=8.57,P<0.05)。结论 气象因素与COPD急性发作密切相关,可通过多元线性回归方程进行模拟预测。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the correlation between the occurrence of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)and the corresponding-period meteorological factors in Fuzhou from 1991 to 2010, so as to establish a meteorological forewarning model for acute exacerbation of COPD in the area of Fuzhou.Methods The numbers of patients with acute exacerbation of COPD treated in the Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University from 1991 to 2010 were collected by month.The seven meteorological indicators during the same periods including monthly mean temperature, monthly mean temperature fluctuation index, monthly mean minimum temperature, monthly mean minimum temperature fluctuation index, monthly mean atmospheric pressure, monthly mean rainfall and monthly mean relative humidity were collected as evaluation factors.Then multiple stepwise regression analysis was carried out in order to establish an accurate forewarning model based on different seasons.Results The number of patients with acute exacerbation of COPD in spring was positively correlated with monthly mean minimum temperature and monthly mean temperature fluctuation index, but negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity and monthly mean temperature(adjusted R-square=0.54, F=18.29, P<0.05).In summer it was negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity, monthly mean temperature and monthly mean minimum temperature fluctuation index(adjusted R-square=0.30, F=9.47, P<0.05).In autumn it was positively correlated with monthly mean atmospheric pressure, but negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity(adjusted R-square=0.45, F=24.95, P<0.05).In winter it was negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity, monthly mean atmospheric pressure(adjusted R-square=0.20, F=8.57, P<0.05).Conclusion Meteorological factors are closely related to the occurrence of acute exacerbation of COPD, and can be predicted by multiple linear regression equations.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目:福建省科技计划公益类科研院所专项(2016R1029-4)1 福建省气候中心; 2福建医科大学附属协和医院呼吸内科
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-03-30